My research explores issues of human rights including representation, marginalization, and non-violent protests by ethnic minority groups. My areas of expertise include institutional design and ethnic conflict, non-violent movements, ethnic and indigenous groups, minority rights, territorial autonomy, nationalism and self-determination, ethno-religious minorities in the MENA, and qualitative and mixed-methods research. My work focusses on how autonomy arrangements create motivations and opportunities for non-violent protests by regional ethnic minority groups. Building on my dissertation work, I develop a book manuscript that uses qualitative and quantitative methods to study how grievances and protests by regional ethnic minorities develop under systems with autonomy arrangements.
Under Review
Verbal attacks on ISIS increased violence against civilians. (with Iliyan Iliev and Brandon J. Kinne). Revise & Resubmit at the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) Nexus.
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is responsible for thousands of civilian deaths, including recent attacks in
Baghdad, Vienna, and Kabul. In confronting ISIS, governments have relied heavily on threats, demands, denunciations,
and other forms of verbal conflict. Did these efforts at verbal coercion have any effect on ISIS’s behavior? We use Bayesian
structural vector autoregression models to analyze daily event data on interactions between ISIS and foreign governments
for the 2014–2020 period. We find that verbal conflict initiated by governments not only failed to deter ISIS but in fact
increased the frequency of ISIS’s attacks on civilians. Notably, ISIS reacted more strongly to verbal conflict than to
military actions, such as airstrikes and ground campaigns. Additional empirical analyses, combined with evidence from
ISIS’s publications and public statements, suggest that this effect resulted from a perceived credibility deficit. Extremists
use terror attacks to signal that they are capable of inflicting pain and suffering on civilian targets. Government attempts
to coerce extremist groups verbally, rather than militarily, reflect an underestimation of the group’s capabilities and
resolve. In an effort to solidify their reputations, extremists engage in further violence toward civilians. We extend the
analysis to al-Qaeda in Iraq and Boko Haram and find similar results.
Regional Autonomy and Ethnic Protests: Consequences of Autonomy on Regional Ethnic Minority Protests.
Do regional ethnic minorities protest under systems with autonomy arrangements? Current research finds non-violent ethnic movements increase under autonomy arrangements, but the literature makes assumptions about which ethnic groups protest. Almost every region with some degree of autonomy has regional ethnic minorities not formally recognized, represented, or empowered. Exclusion of regional ethnic minorities from regional-level government may create grievances that mobilize ethnic protests. To test whether autonomy arrangements increase ethnic protests by regional ethnic minorities I use data on 186 regional ethnic minority groups across 83 countries between 1985-2006. My research finds autonomy arrangements and decentralized governance increased political grievances, economic grievances, and protests by regional ethnic minority groups. The findings highlight important nuances to the regional autonomy project: while autonomy arrangements increase access to power for regional ethnic majorities, they may simultaneously increase political challenges for regional ethnic minority groups.
Assyrian Protests in Iraq: How Institutional Design Increased Mobilization by Iraq's Regional Minorities
How do autonomy arrangements shape mobilization by regional ethnic minority groups? My case study analysis on ethnic protests by Assyrians in Northern Iraq shows Kurdish regional autonomy may have increased grievances by Assyrians against the regional and central governments in Iraq. My evidence is rooted in fieldwork interviews with Assyrian and Kurdish elites and civilians in Northern Iraq, online sources including newspapers, magazines, policy reports, and archival material, and scholarly research. Using desk method research, I also collect data on instances of protests by Assyrians in Iraq between 2005-2018. The protest data reveal, in addition to protesting the central government of Iraq, Assyrians also protest the Kurdish Regional government. Specifically, in disputed territories such as Nineveh, Assyrians directed protests against the Kurdish Regional Government slightly more than the central Iraqi state. The case study analysis provides support for theory on how territorial autonomy arrangements, while they may advance access to power for regional majority groups, may simultaneously increase grievances and conflict outcomes for ethnic minorities within them.
Book Manuscript In Progress
Puzzle
Countries struggling with ethnic conflict sometimes grant territorial autonomy to ethnic minority groups: the logic is that by allowing ethnic minorities to govern over their own territory ethnic minorities may be less likely to initiate violent conflict against the state. However, territorial autonomy creates new ethnic majorities that control policy over the region’s ethnic minority groups. Local minorities may be marginalized from the regional government simply because they do not belong to the local ethnic majority group, and they may develop grievances against the regional government that otherwise might not exist.
Questions
My book project explores how, contrary to intent or expectations, territorial autonomy increases non-violent grievances and protests by regional ethnic minority groups. It addresses three questions. First, why would territorial autonomy increase grievances by regional ethnic minorities against the regional government? Can regional autonomy explain why regional ethnic minorities choose non-violent or violent strategies? Finally, which solutions curb grievances and protests by regional ethnic minority groups?
Methods
I use existing data on the degree of autonomy for first-level administrative units and data on movement strategies for regional ethnic minorities around the world. First, I examine the relationship between the degree of regional autonomy and the type of non-violent strategy chosen by a regional ethnic minority group. Next, I explore this same idea except I examine the consequences of regional autonomy on a range of violent strategies chosen by regional ethnic minority groups including armed rebellion or civil war.
Contribution
Together, my book project highlights important nuances to the regional autonomy project. It brings attention to possible conflict outcomes that occur within regions after creating territorial autonomy arrangements as a solution to ethnic conflict. It motivates local-level policy understanding to protect vulnerable minorities around the world.